Features of Constructing a Cyclical Risk Index Using the Hodrick–Prescott Filter for Monitoring and Management of Banking Risks

Анотація

The article analyzes the impact of cyclical financial risks on the economy of Ukraine using the cyclical risk index. The index is designed to monitor the current level of cyclical risks, as well as possible accumulation in the future. Timely identification of risks with the help of an innovative tool gives the regulator enough time to react and implement anti-crisis measures. In addition, the methodology of index evaluation allows you to visualize not only the index, but also its components, which facilitates the interpretation of the used tool. The dynamics of cyclical risks during economic and financial crises is considered and the importance of their analysis for macroprudential policy is noted. The assessment of the cyclical risk index was carried out using the Hodrick – Prescott filter using indicators reflecting new lending, lending volumes, as well as the cost of lending. The indicators taken into account for the assessment of the index are used separately for the sector of households and non-financial corporations. The results of the analysis showed that after the crisis of 2008–2009, the index remained elevated until the next crisis in 2014, with the gap between non-financial corporations lending to GDP remaining positive. However, before the crisis of 2014–2016, there has been an expansion of cyclical financial risks. During 2017–2023, Ukraine was facing two crises: an economic one caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and a political one related to the russian invasion. The Financial Cycle Index did not predict the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks before these crises, but indicated an increase in risks since 2019. After the russian invasion Ukrainian economy suffered a sharp downturn, but the banking system withstood the test, providing liquidity and continuing lending operations. In general, the results indicate the need for an individual approach to the analysis and management of cyclical financial risks, taking into account the specifics of each country, its context, and the particularities of the financial sector.

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