Geopolitical and geo-economic conseqences of contemporary international armed conflicts

Анотація

Introduction. Modern international armed conflicts have become a challenge to the existing global order, accompanied by extensive geopolitical and geo-economic transformations. They not only disrupt peaceful life and stability in conflict zones but also play a pivotal role in reshaping international relations, impacting the global economy and the dynamics of world markets, as well as the geopolitical landscape and the security architecture of the world. These conflicts lead to shifts in the balance of power, define trends in international trade, influence energy and food security, and serve as a catalyst for the formation of new geopolitical alliances and centers of rivalry. In the context of the above, the study of contemporary international armed conflicts is particularly relevant, considering the scale of their geopolitical and geo-economic consequences. Research Objective. The aim of this study is a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical and geo-economic consequences of contemporary international armed conflicts for the international relations system, the global economy, and world markets, regional stability, and in the context of the reorganization of international security alliances. Methods. In the research process, the index method of statistical research was employed, allowing the determination of the impact of geopolitical risks on the dynamics of key indicators of the global economy and outlining the geo-economic consequences of armed conflicts. Additionally, the method of correlation analysis was utilized to statistically investigate the correlation between the dynamics of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GRI) and the Consumer Price Index in the economies of the USA and the EU, as well as the dynamics of GRI and prices for energy resources and food in global commodity markets. Results. The correlation analysis conducted demonstrated the correlation between geopolitical events and the dynamics of economic indicators. It was argued that geopolitical risks and international armed conflicts lead to sharp economic fluctuations in global energy and food markets, which are vulnerable to shocks due to the concentration of production and exports in regions of armed conflicts. It was clarified that the increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index often precedes an increase in inflationary pressure, requiring swift responses from governments and central banks to prevent a global economic crisis. Thus, it was argued that the dynamics of the Geopolitical Risk Index is not only an indicator of the current geopolitical situation but also a tool for assessing and forecasting economic trends. The geopolitical consequences of international armed conflicts were systematized, including: reorganization of international alliances and the emergence of new geopolitical interactions; changes in the global security architecture and the need for the transformation of the UN; the growing role of China and the emergence of prerequisites for establishing a bipolar world order; limitations on the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a strategy to appease aggressors; rethinking global energy security; the impact of armed conflicts on regional dynamics in the Middle East. Prospects. Escalation of contemporary international armed conflicts and the risks of emerging new centers of geopolitical confrontation may catalyze the formation of a multipolar world order. Under these circumstances, the subject of further scientific research involves studying the impact of armed conflicts on the behavior of international actors and the alteration of the global order model.

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