Labor Market and Employment in 2025: Demographic Changes, Staff Shortages, Uncertainty of Economic Prospects

Анотація

The article examines the transformation of Ukraine’s labour market in 2022–2025 through the lens of interactions between demographic, migration, and institutional–legal factors. It demonstrates how full-scale war and migration reduce the country’s labour potential, intensify structural imbalances, and reshape the employment profile. It is shown how the state policy shifted from supporting business for its survival at the beginning of full-scale war to maximizing tax revenue a few years later. Drawing on data from population and business monitoring surveys, vacancy statistics, and studies of Ukrainians abroad, the paper assesses the prospects for the post-war recovery of the labour market and illustrates how return intentions decline among refugees—combined with economic uncertainty - heighten the risk of prolonged “human capital drain.” Particular attention is paid to business expectations and the outlook for job creation, as well as to the close interdependence between social, demographic, and economic processes and the state’s legislative activity. The article notes that changes in tax regimes, tighter administration, and the fiscalization of business may increase costs and risks for small and medium-sized enterprises, producing potentially unpredictable consequences for labour market dynamics. It argues that there is a need for a coherent public policy that would combine security-related and economic incentives for the return of the economically active population, instruments of reintegration and reskilling, and greater predictability of the regulatory framework.

Класифікація

Ідентифікатори

Схожі роботи