Spatial asymmetry in changes to the socio-economic potential and resilience of Ukraine’s regions amid full-scale war

Анотація

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to identify the features of spatial asymmetry in changes to the socio-economic potential and resilience of Ukraine’s regions under conditions of the full-scale war, as well as to substantiate the key factors that determine the differentiation of regional adaptive capacity, financial self-sufficiency, and structural resilience. <br>Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is a comprehensive approach combining the provisions of regional economics, spatial development theory, resilience theory, and systems analysis. The research employs statistical and comparative analysis to assess interregional differences in demographic, infrastructural, financial, and economic transformations. The study uses indicators such as changes in the de facto population, the concentration of internally displaced persons, the scale of infrastructure losses, the share of official transfers in local budget revenues, and the level of economic diversification. Methods of generalization, synthesis, structural analysis, and graphical visualization are applied to identify spatially differentiated models of regional transformation under wartime shocks. <br>Findings. The study demonstrates that the full-scale war has become a factor of profound transformation of Ukraine’s socio-economic space. It has intensified demographic losses, caused large-scale destruction of industrial, social, transport, logistics, and energy infrastructure, deepened financial disparities among regions, and increased migration vulnerability. The most severe losses of socio-economic potential are observed in frontline and partially occupied regions, where human capital has declined, production capacity has been destroyed, transport and social infrastructure have deteriorated, and local financial self-sufficiency has weakened. At the same time, relatively safe rear regions have become centres of population concentration, business relocation, financial resource accumulation, and economic activity. The research identifies spatially differentiated models of territorial social and financial return, including financially resilient regions, financially degraded regions, and transitional regions that combine high security risks with a relatively preserved capacity for economic functioning. It is substantiated that economic diversification is one of the key determinants of regional resilience, as it increases territories’ ability to adapt to shocks, maintain economic activity, and reduce dependence on individual sectors. Additional factors undermining resilience include migration losses, shrinking labour potential, youth and skilled labour outflow, population ageing, energy instability, and growing dependence of communities on external financial support. <br>Originality. The scientific novelty of the study lies in substantiating the spatial asymmetry of changes in the socio-economic potential and resilience of Ukraine’s regions under conditions of full-scale war. The article develops an analytical approach to identifying spatially differentiated models of territorial transformation based on demographic, infrastructural, financial, and structural indicators. The study also highlights the relationship between territorial financial capacity, economic diversification, migration vulnerability, and regional resilience in the context of long-term military shocks. <br>Practical value. The practical significance of the results lies in their applicability for improving state regional policy under wartime and post-war recovery conditions. The findings may be used to develop differentiated policy instruments aimed at supporting regions with critical losses of socio-economic potential, strengthening local financial capacity, reducing interregional disparities, stimulating economic diversification, and increasing the adaptability of regions and communities to long-term security, demographic, and socio-economic challenges.

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