Directions for the transformation of the commodity and geographical structure of Ukrainian exports

Анотація

The article analyzes the transformation processes in the commodity and geographical structures of Ukrainian exports during the war. It shows that commodity exports serve as a key indicator of the state’s macroeconomic stability during wartime. The author notes that the dynamics of the share of commodity exports in Ukraine’s GDP demonstrate a consistent decline from 2021 to 2023, with partial recovery in 2024. The presence of deep structural imbalances in the dynamics of commodity exports caused by declining global demand, infrastructure destruction, and disruption of logistics chains is confirmed. Key trends in the export dynamics of individual goods are identified, including the preservation of a high share of agri-food products, a reduction in the export of mineral products, and stabilization in the wood processing segment. A significant decline in chemical exports accompanied by signs of recovery, indicating the sector's adaptive potential, is emphasized. The reduction in exports of ferrous and non-ferrous metals and related products, as well as in the machine-building sector, is detected. The article finds that the geographical structure of Ukraine’s exports has undergone significant changes in favor of western regions and the capital, alongside a contraction of export activity in the East and South. The loss of positions by southern regions due to the destruction of port infrastructure is revealed. A shift in export geography toward EU countries, particularly Poland, Spain, and Germany, accompanied by a decrease in trade volumes with China, is identified. The growing role of Romania as an alternative logistics partner is emphasized. New prospects for cooperation with Italy and the Netherlands are outlined. The article shows that foreign economic activity is being shaped by flexible logistics strategies. The potential of machine-building exports as a driver of recovery is revealed. The need to transition from a raw-material to a technological export model is emphasized. The importance of institutional support for structural transformation is underlined. The formation of new sustainable export directions as a strategic priority for Ukraine’s post-war recovery is confirmed.

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