Modeling the Structural Transformation of Transport Services in Ukraine’s Foreign Trade

Анотація

Transport services are an important component of foreign trade in services, as they ensure the functioning of international commodity flows, form the logistical basis of export-import operations, and affect the external economic stability of the State. For Ukraine, their study has become especially relevant in 2022–2024 under the influence of military actions, infrastructure destruction, changes in transport routes, and the reorientation of foreign trade. The aim of the article is to study the dynamics, structure, and structural transformation of transport services in Ukraine’s foreign trade, as well as to identify the contribution of specific types to changes in exports, imports, and the balance. To achieve this aim, the following objectives were set: to assess the place of transport services in Ukraine’s overall foreign trade in services; to analyze the dynamics of exports, imports, and balance; to study changes in the type structure of transport services; and to carry out a structural decomposition of the main shifts by individual service groups, including the «Other» group. The study used methods of structural, dynamic, comparative, and decomposition analysis, as well as the method of generalization. The information base consisted of statistical data on Ukraine’s foreign trade in transport services for 2021–2024. As a result, it was found that in 2022 there was a sharp decline in the exports and imports of transport services and the deepest structural disruption under the influence of the full-scale war. It was proved that the pre-war model, in which air services played a significant role in exports and maritime services in imports, transformed into a new configuration with an increased role of road transport, auxiliary services, and the «Other» group. It was substantiated that in 2023–2024 there was a partial recovery of transport services, which did not mean a return to the structure of 2021, but reflected the formation of a new logistical model of Ukraine’s foreign trade. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of using them for the analytical substantiation of decisions in the field of transport policy, logistics development, and foreign economic activity, while the prospects for further research are associated with deepening the quantitative assessment of structural shifts, analyzing the geographical reorientation of transport flows, and studying the long-term consequences of the wartime transformation of the transport services market.

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