EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WITH APPLYING TO UKRAINIAN ECONOMY

Анотація

The article discusses the problem of creating successful strategy of export oriented growth. Exports and export policies, in particular, are considered to be the most important stimulators of economic growth. Export is an effective mean of introducing new technologies, both for exporters, in particular, and in other sectors of the economy. In our study, we attempted to measure the process of export changes and economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe during the opening the economy of these countries, membership in European Union, global financial crisis 2008. The study included 15 countries: EU countries Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, as well post-Soviet European countries: Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Belarus and also Albania for the period from 1991 to 2017. We use World Development Indicators Data base of the World Bank for this period. In order to test the impact of export on economic growth the Keynesian model of economic development is used. For estimation of this model we used panel GLS regression with fixed effects for CEE countries for the period 1991-2017 yy. In summary, we investigated the factors influencing economic growth for the entire period 1991-2017. Exports and private consumption remain dominant factors with coefficients of 0.21 and 0.42, respectively. In the European Union countries economic growth is dominated by private consumption (impact ratio -0.56 and exports -0.27). The rest of the CEE countries are growing due to private consumption (coefficient -0.25) and investment -0.23. The results of the study of the impact of EU membership on the relationship between exports and economic growth show that the economies of countries that have joined the European Union are more export-oriented than European countries that have not joined the EU , the coefficient of the impact of export growth on GDP growth in the EU countries is more than 5 times higher than in other CEE countries (0.34 and 0.06, respectively). Thus, the economies of CEE countries acquire the features of the Keynesian model of economic development,coefficients of determination R2 explain 80-90% of changes in economic growth.

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