Bioresources Price Trend and GDP Growth Adjustment

Анотація

After the 1970s, global wealth and international economic indicators were decoupled from the gold standard. Since then, issues related to the absolute prices of global material resources, together with their dynamics, balances, and flows, have remained salient. Therefore, this article focuses on the dynamics of basic bioresources, wheat and rice, and minerals, crude oil, and gold, as well as on the behaviour of global gross domestic product GDP. Using data from 1989 to 2018, econometric methods were employed to identify long-run relationships between the wheat price level and its determinants, including global GDP growth. A related wheat USD inflation model indicates that world GDP has exhibited a steadily negative trend in recent years. The wheat USD inflation model also shows that the US CPI can be used to adjust world GDP in specific analytical situations. The results suggest that GDP, adjusted for wheat-inflation effects, is a valuable predictor of global economic growth.

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