Dynamics of agricultural exports and participation of commodity-producing enterprises in the distribution of income from foreign economic activity

Анотація

The article provides theoretical and methodological substantiation, alongside an empirical analysis, of Ukraine’s agricultural export dynamics amid unprecedented geopolitical shocks and martial law. It investigates the structural characteristics of infrastructure and logistics support for foreign economic activity and identifies the economic and institutional mechanisms governing primary agricultural producers’ participation in the distribution of export income. Based on statistical data from the 2024/2025 marketing years, the study analyzes structural fluctuations in export volumes of key grain crops and processed products and evaluates the direct impact of agricultural dynamics on Ukraine’s Gross Domestic Product. The study identifies a profound market asymmetry and income disparity in which primary agricultural enterprises, despite bearing the core burden of production, climate, and military risks, receive only a minimal share of export revenue, while the ultimate financial returns accrue to intermediaries and logistics operators. The pricing transformation across Incoterms matrices (EXW, CPT, FOB, and CIF) demonstrates how hyper-inflated logistics costs absorb up to 60% of the final price, driving farm-gate returns below technological production costs. The impact of the logistics-scale effect, financial leverage, and administrative barriers in foreign trade on the systematic exclusion of small and micro enterprises from direct export channels is detailed. Special attention is paid to fiscal instruments of state regulation, particularly mechanisms for value-added tax administration and transfer pricing control, in accordance with the dual-volume criteria set out in Article 39 of the Tax Code of Ukraine. Comprehensive recommendations are formulated to optimize inter-sectoral value-added distribution by incentivizing agricultural cooperation, developing domestic deep processing, and strengthening controls over tax base erosion. Keywords: agricultural export, income distribution, market asymmetry, logistics costs, Incoterms, transfer pricing, agricultural cooperation, value added.

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