USING THE CANONICAL MODELING APPROACH TO ANALYZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BANK CAPITALIZATION INDICATORS AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY

Анотація

The article summarizes the theoretical aspects of macroeconomic stability and bank capitalization as part of the national development of the economy. The authors systematize the main approaches to the definitions of these categories on the basis of a review of publications of foreign and domestic scientists. The main domestic and foreign indicators of bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability are identified. The aim of the study is to identify and analyze the main indicators of bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability and assess their relationship on the basis of the canonical model. In addition, the objective of the article is to develop practical recommendations for banks taking into account the results of the canonical analysis. The metadata for the bibliometric analysis were obtained from the Scopus scientometric database. The results of the bibliometric analysis allowed us to determine the relationship of macroeconomic stability and capitalization of banks with economic, financial, social and business processes. Among the main indicators of macroeconomic stability are the following: GDP, inflation, unemployment rate, national currency exchange rate, etc. Among the main indicators of bank capitalization are the ratio of capital to assets (for the G7 countries) and standards H1 and H2 (for Ukraine). The authors analyzed the above-mentioned indicators in the G7 countries and Ukraine from 2009 to 2020. The authors used canonical analysis and Statistica software to achieve the purpose of the study. The authors built a model based on quarterly statistical data of Ukraine from 2015 to 2020. The obtained results of the canonical analysis confirmed the strong connection between the volume of GDP and the capital of banks, which is 0.791, between GDP and the H2 ratio – 0.851, between the volume of bank capital and household income – 0.835. This necessitates further consideration of fluctuations in GDP and household incomes by banks, when developing resource policy. The constructed model shows the inseparable links between the processes in the banking system and macroeconomic processes. Banks also need to develop and implement appropriate action plans in case of negative economic growth scenario and impoverishment of the population.

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