LABOR MARKET AND MIGRATION CAPITAL: SCENARIO MODELING OF SYSTEMIC CONNECTIVITY

Анотація

The article examines the systemic relationship between the labor market and migration capital in the context of transformational changes in the Ukrainian economy. It is substantiated that the modern development of the national labor market is under the influence of military risks, demographic losses, structural imbalances in employment and increased migration mobility of the population. The economic nature of the interaction between the labor market and migration capital is determined, which is considered a complex socio-economic category that includes financial transfers, professional competencies, social ties, entrepreneurial experience and institutional practices formed as a result of labor migration. The impact of migration processes on the employment structure and labor potential of Ukraine is analyzed. It is established that the intensification of external labor migration is accompanied by a reduction in the economically active population, increased personnel imbalances, aging of the workforce and a decrease in the level of reproduction of human capital. At the same time, it is proven that migration capital can act as an important resource for the modernization of the labor market, provided that migrants are effectively re-integrated, entrepreneurial activity is developed, and professional competencies acquired abroad are used. The study develops scenario approaches to assessing labor market development, taking into account the role of migration capital. Tendency, adaptation, and transformational development scenarios are distinguished. It is determined that the tendency scenario is characterized by the preservation of the inertial employment model and the dominance of the service sector, the adaptation scenario is characterized by partial stabilization of the labor market through the development of the service sector and small business, while the transformational scenario involves the active involvement of migration capital in the processes of reindustrialization, modernization of production, and expansion of productive employment. It is substantiated that the effective use of migration capital can become an important factor in the post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy.

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