SOCIAL SECURITY AS AN INTERNAL STABILIZER OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE DURING WAR AND UNCERTAINTY IN UKRAINE

Анотація

This study examines the role of social security as an internal stabiliser of financial and economic resilience under conditions of war and heightened uncertainty, using Ukraine as a case study. The relevance of the research arises from prolonged armed conflict and the escalation to full-scale war, which exposed the economy to severe structural shocks and exceptional uncertainty. The study aims to empirically assess whether social security mitigates deviations of economic activity from its long-term development path.The analysis uses annual data for 2014–2024. Financial and economic resilience is operationalised as the deviation of real gross domestic product from its estimated long-term trend. Social security is measured by an integral index incorporating labour market conditions, inflation dynamics, and the share of social protection expenditures in total government spending. The empirical framework applies ordinary least squares estimation with robust standard errors, controlling for macroeconomic uncertainty and conflict-related structural breaks.The results reveal a positive and statistically significant relationship between social security and economic resilience. Higher levels of social security are associated with smaller deviations of economic output from its long-term trajectory, even under conditions of elevated uncertainty and armed conflict. In contrast, macroeconomic uncertainty and war-related shocks exert a pronounced destabilising effect on economic resilience, with the full-scale war period demonstrating substantially deeper impacts.The findings indicate that social security functions as a structural component of economic resilience rather than a residual social policy outcome, suggesting its critical role in economic stabilisation and post-war recovery.

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