НЕЧІТКО-ЛОГІЧНИЙ ПІДХІД ДО ОБҐРУНТУВАННЯ СТРАТЕГІЧНИХ РІШЕНЬ ПРОМИСЛОВИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ В УМОВАХ ГЛИБОКОЇ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ

Анотація

Objective. The purpose of the article is to develop a fuzzy-logic approach to substantiating strategic decisions of industrial enterprises under deep uncertainty, one that combines quantitative indicators, qualitative characteristics, and expert judgments within a unified procedure for evaluating a strategic alternative and ensures the transition from heterogeneous information to a formalized managerial conclusion. Method. The methodological basis of the study consists of general scientific and special approaches and methods whose application made it possible to develop a fuzzy-logic approach to substantiating strategic decisions of industrial enterprises under deep uncertainty. The study employed a systems approach, which made it possible to consider a strategic decision as the result of the interaction between the enterprise’s internal state and the changing conditions of its operation; analysis and synthesis, abstraction, classification, and systematization, used to organize the model’s input parameters, divide them into parameters of the enterprise’s internal state and parameters of the external environment, and identify the blocks subject to fuzzy evaluation; definitional and categorical-logical analysis, applied to distinguish between the categories of “risk,” “uncertainty,” and “deep uncertainty,” and to clarify the content of the concepts of “strategic decision,” “strategic alternative,” “acceptability of a strategic alternative,” and “internal strategic capacity”; monographic and comparative analysis, used to compare approaches to decision-making under uncertainty, methods for dealing with deep uncertainty, and fuzzy multicriteria procedures; content analysis of scholarly publications, which made it possible to identify approaches to constructing linguistic variables, membership functions, rule bases, and defuzzification procedures; structural-functional analysis and conceptual modeling, applied to form the architecture of the fuzzy-logic approach and establish interrelations between input-parameter blocks, intermediate evaluations, and the final managerial conclusion; structural-logical modeling, used to build the sequence of aggregating partial evaluations, shape the fuzzy inference procedure, and develop the procedure for the practical application of the approach; methods of fuzzy logic, linguistic modeling, and rule-based inference, which underlie the construction of term sets, membership functions, the rule base, and the final evaluation of the acceptability of a strategic alternative; expert evaluation, used in the interpretation of qualitative characteristics that lack a stable numerical expression; and logical consistency control, applied to verify the internal coherence of the proposed sequence of stages and the substantive correspondence of linguistic scales, fuzzy inference rules, and the interpretive scale of the final result. The results. The article clarifies the content of deep uncertainty with respect to substantiating strategic ISSN1680-0044 Наукові праці ДонНТУ. Серія: «Економічна» №2 (32), 2025 152 decisions of industrial enterprises by identifying such a configuration of the environment in which the composition of factors, the strength of their influence, the duration of their action, and the possible combinations of decisionimplementation conditions remain uncertain. The composition of the input parameters of the fuzzy-logic approach is substantiated through their division into parameters of the enterprise’s internal state and parameters of the external environment that determine the acceptability of implementing a strategic alternative. A system of linguistic variables and membership functions for quantitative, interval, and qualitative characteristics is formed; a fuzzy inference rule base is constructed; a sequence for aggregating partial evaluations, a procedure for defuzzifying the final result, and a scale for its interpretation within the strategic choice procedure are proposed. A sequence for the practical application of the approach is developed, covering the formation of strategic alternatives, the selection of the information base, expert evaluation of weakly formalized parameters, the construction of the fuzzy model, and the preparation of a managerial conclusion regarding the selection, adjustment, postponement, or rejection of a decision. Scientific novelty. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the development of a fuzzy-logic approach to substantiating strategic decisions of industrial enterprises under deep uncertainty, within which, in contrast to existing approaches to fuzzy evaluation and multicriteria choice, a holistic procedure for transitioning from heterogeneous information to a formalized managerial conclusion is substantiated; the content of deep uncertainty in relation to the strategic choice of an industrial enterprise is clarified by taking into account uncertainty in the composition of factors, the strength of their influence, the duration of their action, and the possible combinations of decision-implementation conditions; the system of the model’s input parameters is substantiated through its division into parameters of the enterprise’s internal state and parameters of the external environment, including wartime energy, logistics, security, and institutional-investment constraints; a sequential aggregation of partial evaluations is proposed through the intermediate variables “internal strategic capacity” and “acceptability of decision implementation conditions,” followed by determining the acceptability of a strategic alternative; and the procedure for interpreting the final fuzzy-inference result is improved by transforming it into a formalized conclusion concerning the selection, adjustment, postponement, or rejection of a strategic decision. The practical significance. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the fact that the developed fuzzy-logic approach can be used by industrial enterprises when choosing among strategic development alternatives, in particular when expanding or curtailing specific lines of activity, revising the production program, changing supply and sales links, upgrading the technological base, substantiating investment decisions, and adjusting strategic plans in response to changes in the parameters of the external environment. Of practical value are the input-parameter composition proposed in the article, which can serve as the basis for an information map of the enterprise’s strategic choice; the system of linguistic variables and membership functions, suitable for formalizing expert evaluations in those parts of the analysis where stable numerical boundaries are absent; the fuzzy inference rule base, which can be used to evaluate the acceptability of a strategic alternative with due regard to the enterprise’s internal state and external constraints; and the interpretive scale of the final evaluation, which ensures the transition from an analytical result to a managerial conclusion regarding the selection, refinement, postponement, or rejection of a decision. Of separate applied importance is the possibility of using the approach in the work of strategic units, planning and economic departments, development units, crisis management units, and governing bodies of the enterprise when preparing materials for the consideration of strategic alternatives, reconciling expert positions, fixing the boundaries of decision acceptability, and documenting the grounds for managerial choice

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