Foreign exchange market of Ukraine in the categories of post-war renewal of the national economy and implementation of its external economic potential

Анотація

The paper systematizes the factors that affect the functioning of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine in the conditions of martial law, namely: deficit and price growth caused by the destruction of infrastructure, blockade of ports, instability of supplies of strategic resources, increasing the load on railway and inland water transport, strengthening state regulation and control, introducing export restrictions on some critically important resources (grain, fuel, metal), reorientation of sales markets, etc. It is shown that Ukraine should take into account the behavior of raw material exporting countries regarding reserve management and gold and currency policy. It has been proven that the current volatility of commodity markets requires a flexible strategy to maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves. It is recommended to monitor trends in global asset diversification for effective management of own reserves by the NBU. It is argued that diversification of the economy can reduce dependence on cyclical fluctuations in raw material prices, and the Ukrainian reserve accumulation strategy should take into account not only traditional assets (dollar, euro, bonds), but also gold, especially in periods of economic turbulence. It was diagnosed that the operating conditions of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine are unstable, but they are gradually adapting to the turbulent external environment due to the diversification of markets, changes in logistics routes, and government intervention. It has been proven that further dynamics will depend on the situation at the front, international support and the ability of business to adapt to new challenges. In order to eliminate Ukraine's dependence on raw material exports, it is proposed to implement a set of measures, the main ones of which are: diversification of the economy through the development of the processing industry, the technological sector, and mechanical engineering; to increase the share of products with high added value on the basis of supporting innovative enterprises and stimulating the production of final products. It has been proven that the transition to an innovation-oriented economic model of Ukraine will reduce currency risks, become dependent on commodity cycles and global price fluctuations, which will provide opportunities for sustainable development.

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