Identification of Migration Motives as a Tool for Managing Economic Risks in Ukraine

Анотація

Introduction. In the context of the multi-level transformations of Ukraine’s socio-economic system driven by both internal and external factors (armed aggression, economic turbulence, globalization challenges, etc.), the problem of adequately understanding and systematically identifying the motivational determinants of the population’s migration behaviour is becoming particularly relevant. The absence of an integrated analytical model capable of interpreting migration impulses as a response to changes in employment, welfare, social protection or security conditions complicates the development of effective mechanisms for managing economic risks associated with demographic decline, human capital outflow, labour market distortions and fiscal instability. Thus, the identification of migration motives emerges not only as a research task, but also as a strategic tool for decision-making in the fields of economic forecasting, regional policy and social security. In this context, it is essential to develop a multifactor approach to analysing migration motives and to further integrate its results into a risk-oriented management system for the national socio-economic system. Purpose. To substantiate the conceptual and applied foundations for the identification of migration motives as a tool for managing economic risks in Ukraine under conditions of socio-economic instability and growing external and internal population mobility. Method (methodology). The methodological basis of the study is grounded in dialectical, systemic and risk-oriented approaches. The research employs methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparative and structural-functional analysis, generalisation, statistical analysis of migration indicators, as well as content analysis of regulatory and legal acts, strategic documents and the results of sociological surveys on the migration intentions of the population. The results. The study systematises classification approaches to the motivational structure of migration decisions and proposes an original multi-level model for identifying migration motives as a tool of risk-oriented management of economic risks in Ukraine. Based on empirical data for 2022–2025, the dynamics of internal and external migration flows are analysed, key motivational factors (economic, social, security-related, institutional) are identified, and their impact on human capital loss, labour market distortion and growing demographic risks is assessed. Practical recommendations are substantiated for improving state migration policy aimed at minimising economic and fiscal risks and preserving labour potential under conditions of wartime and post-war transformation.

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