Геополітичний вимір проєкту Стамбульського каналу в системі міжнародних відносин (2011–2025)

Анотація

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical dimension of the Istanbul Canal construction project as a strategic initiative of the Republic of Turkey in the period 2011–2025. The historical genealogy of the idea of creating an alternative waterway between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara is examined – from ancient projects and Ottoman attempts to its reactualization in contemporary political discourse. The geopolitical context of the project within the system of international relations is investigated, with particular attention to its potential impact on the regime of the Black Sea Straits established by the Montreux Convention of 1936. It is demonstrated that the Istanbul Canal is not so much an infrastructural undertaking as a powerful geopolitical instrument aimed at transforming the regional balance of power and strengthening Turkey's strategic autonomy in the Black Sea-Mediterranean basin. Special attention is devoted to analyzing the positions of key global actors (the United States, the russian federation, the People's Republic of China, and the European Union) regarding the project's implementation and its consequences for the regional security architecture. It is established that the emergence of an artificial waterway formally excluded from the jurisdiction of the Montreux Convention creates real preconditions for the erosion of the established international legal regime and may provoke an intensification of geopolitical rivalry in the Black Sea region. The domestic political context of the project is revealed, characterized by acute polarization of Turkish society and the use of the canal as a symbol of Neo-Ottoman revival in the ideological discourse of the ruling elite. Based on the conducted analysis, prognostic assessments are formulated regarding the further development of the situation surrounding the Istanbul Canal and its impact on the transformation of the Black Sea region's security architecture in the medium-term perspective.

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