The Mykhaleviches’ Ideas Implemented for Rebuilding of Ukraine and Contributing to Sustainable Development in the Global Scope

Анотація

Introduction. The achievements of the School of Modern Inter-Industrial Balance of the V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of the NAS of Ukraine, founded by Vladimir.S. and Michael V. Mikhalevyches, are of interest both at the national and international levels. These developments can be interpreted as improvements in the methodology of two main approaches to innovative development, namely: "top-down" and "bottom-up" approaches .The top-down approach provides an econometric forecast of the characteristics of new technologies based on correlations between the volume of expenditures for new developments and the number of human and other resources employed in this, on the one hand, and the improvement of traditional and innovative, in particular "green", parameters, on the other hand. The bottom-up approach is more accurate and developed, and is based on the final results of specific developments of innovative technologies, for which the dynamic task of planning and forecasting their practical implementation is solved, as a balanced transitional process of replacing old technologies with new ones. The article proposes a problem statement oriented to the supply, which has an independent economic interest and is solved by an optimization model that covers the volume of consumption, the dynamics of replacing old technologies with new ones, etc. The purpose of the work is to develop an optimization model for finding the highest technologically permissible consumption to ensure a balanced transition process to new technologies, which provides for the highest possible welfare and calculate the optimal scenario, which may contain endogenous fluctuations caused by technological changes. Results. An optimization model was built that reflects the dynamics of technologically permissible consumption during the transition period. The properties of the model were studied and the cyclical nature of the transition process was revealed; an optimal transition scenario was built. The example shows how even in the absence of problems on the demand side, inevitable recessions can still occur as the initial phase of the transition process. Conclusions. The dynamics of the economy, driven by radical technological change, is a full business cycle with phases of initial temporary recession, recovery, growth, overheating and Kondratieff waves that decay to a stationary state or stagnation. The proposed modeling approach has the potential to increase the accuracy of planning and forecasting innovative and “green” development of all countries. For Ukraine – to increase the accuracy and detail of recovery planning, including “better than before” and “green recovery”. Keywords: dynamic input-output models, optimization, innovation, test calculations.

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