US trade policy transformation and its impact on the development of Ukraine's industry

Анотація

The article examines the impact of transformations in U.S. trade policy on the development of Ukraine’s industrial production in the context of the ongoing transformation of the global trading system. The evolution of scientific approaches to the role of trade policy in ensuring industrial development and its influence on international trade relations is analyzed. The methodological framework of the study is based on institutional analysis, econometric modeling, and a scenario-based approach. The results of the econometric analysis indicate that the dynamics of Ukraine’s industrial production are primarily determined by macroeconomic factors, particularly GDP growth rates and export volumes to the United States, while the tariff factor during the analyzed period did not have a statistically significant impact. At the same time, scenario modeling demonstrates the potential sensitivity of Ukrainian industry to a possible strengthening of protectionist measures in the future, which may lead to a decline in the competitiveness of Ukrainian products in the U.S. market. The study substantiates the need to develop an active trade and industrial policy for Ukraine aimed at improving the technological level of production, developing cooperation with American companies, and diversifying export markets.

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