Fiscal Security of the State Considering Threats of Macroeconomic Nature
Анотація
The paper focuses on the study of macroeconomic threats to fiscal security. Empirical data based on the results of strategic analysis in the field of fiscal security of Ukraine are presented. The results of threat analysis are compared separately according to the level of probability and consequences of their spread with the risk level, which is determined on the basis of an integrated combination of probability and consequences. The risk level identified the most significant threats in the field of fiscal security of Ukraine. Emphasis is placed on determining the risk thresholds for the spread of threats. A threat matrix is used and appropriate thresholds are proposed. The identified threshold levels were applied to the threat risk rating and a corresponding diagram was constructed taking into account the threat threshold levels. Based on the risk assessment of 21 macroeconomic threats in the field of fiscal security, the most significant threats were identified: the level of the shadow economy is 64.55%, the decline in production in the country is 63.52%, the reduction of the official labor market is 62.02% and labor migration, outflow labor force abroad is 66.06%.
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