Transformational Interlinkages between Ukraine’s Economic and Demographics Potential: Implications for Public Governance Based on the Analysis of Migration, Public Health, and Citizens’ Well-Being Shifts

Анотація

Demography is one of the key factors in shaping the state’s economic potential and a strategic priority for public governance, as population size, age structure, birth and mortality rates, and migration processes directly dictate the sustainability of internal economic and administrative frameworks. At the same time, economic stability and the material well-being of citizens create a favorable basis for increasing the birth rate, curbing emigration, and improving the quality of human capital. Negative economic trends, especially under the conditions of military conflict, provoke increased migration processes, a reduction in labor resources, and a deepening of social problems. The article is devoted to modeling the interdependence between demographic processes and the economic development of Ukraine for the period 1995–2023. A comparative assessment of the strength and direction of influence of individual factors, as well as a quality check of the constructed models, is carried out. The following parameters are included in the economic and mathematical modelling: net migration rates, population growth, unemployment rate, total annual freshwater withdrawal (% of domestic resources), real interest rate, GDP per capita, and adolescent fertility rate. The impact of these factors is multifaceted: the findings reveal that the depletion of human capital through migration creates structural imbalances in the labor market, while the correlation between adolescent fertility and GDP highlights the need for targeted social interventions. Ultimately, the analysis demonstrates that the effective transformation of these interlinkages depends on the capacity of public governance to implement adaptive policies that harmonize economic incentives with demographic security to ensure long-term national resilience.

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