Methodology of long-term forecasting of amounts of works performed by transport sector

Анотація

The article studies the dynamics of transport sector as the characteristics of the country’s transport system components. The methods of the research include the historical method when determining the stages of formation and development of the transport infrastructure of the country; the method of system analysis when determining the components of transport system and analyzing the existing approaches to forecasting conditions and parameters of the system; the mathematical modeling when predicting the characteristics of the components of the transport system of the country. Based on improvement of scientific approaches for long-term forecasting of characteristics of the components of transport system of the country a method of forecasting of the volume of work performed by the transport sector was developed. It was found that forecasting of the studied characteristics should be carried out in two stages. At the first stage, we use the growth rate in the middle of the stage and the ratio between the increments of first periods of the closed state and first periods of the open state of II and III stages, and forecast the initial and final values of the characteristics in different periods of existence of transport system. At the second stage, we use the mathematical model of the system in the closed state, and find the numerical values of the characteristics within periods

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