The determinants of tourism development: the example of potential candidates for the EU membership

Анотація

The paper deals with the analysis of the main indicators which influence on tourism development. The authors analysed and systematized the main determinants of tourism development for potential candidates for the EU membership. Thus, the object of investigation was Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia during 2000-2017. The authors theoretical justified the relationship between the country's economic development and efficiency of the tourism industry. For analysis, the Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) using latent variables was used. In addition, the proposed model, along with traditional economic and social indicators, considering the innovative, environmental and political components. The basis of this model was the structural equations which described the interdependence of both latent variables (internal part of the model) and their descriptive indicators (the external part of the model). The empirical results confirmed the statistically significant relationship between the economic, social, innovative, environmental and political components at the level of 0.8-0.9 by the coefficient alpha Cronbach. The proposed model of PLS-PM allowed highlighting the main directions of tourism development for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. In addition, the proposed model allocated the gap between the real situation in the analysed countries and the social and economic development of the EU countries. The findings indicated that the development of the tourism industry depends on the ecological and social indicators of the countries' development. In addition, for Ukraine, excluding the environmental and social indicators, the country's image is influenced by political stability. At the same time, the dynamic political reforms in Georgia led to an increase in the country's popularity among tourists. The authors highlighted, that the assessment of the relationship between tourism and social, economic, environmental and innovative development could be the basis for the development strategy of the tourism considering the macroeconomic stability of the country.

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