Construction of business confidence index based on a system of economic indicators

Анотація

One of the important indicators that characterize the economy of the country is the business confidence index. It is the basis for tracking the cycles of economic dynamics and analysis of the country's business climate. Evaluation of this indicator makes it possible to predict the crisis phenomena that are occurring in the economy, and to develop possible ways out of difficult situations. On the example of the five countries (Ukraine, Germany, Hungary, Slovenia, Poland) it was also analyzed the possibility of constructing the business confidence index based on economic indicators, which characterize current economic activity of the country. For analysis, the quarterly values of economic indicators over the last years were taken. The selected economic indicators based on cross-correlation analysis were ranked into three groups: coincident, lagging and leading indicators. Using coincident and leading economic indicators, the several regression models of the business confidence index were built. On the basis of the obtained regression models, the forecast of business confidence index value for the next period is evaluated and the trends of its development are established.

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