Scientific and Methodical Approach to Forecasting and Evaluating the Efficiency of the System for Managing Sustainable Innovative Socially Oriented Economic Development Based on a Modernized Human Development Index

Анотація

The aim of the article is the development and materialization of techniques for forecasting and evaluating the efficiency of the system for managing sustainable innovative socially oriented economic development based on a modernized human development index (HDI). The HDI is studied as an integral indicator for evaluating the efficiency of the system for managing sustainable innovative socially oriented economic development in terms of its modernization with the purpose of considering the most powerful factors in the development of innovative activity in the context of sustainable satisfaction of the vital interests (VI) of the socium, society, or state. The terms «sustainability criteria» and «stability reserve» of the system for managing sustainable innovative socially oriented economic development, which serve signal values for evaluating the social stability, have been suggested. It is emphasized that the negative value of stability reserve indicates the country’s entering the active phase of a political, financial and economic crisis, long stay in which will inevitably lead to a revolutionary situation. It is for the first time that the author on the basis of a multidisciplinary approach, morphological analysis and the method of adjustment indices has developed a modernized human development index, which, unlike the conventional HDI, takes into account environmental, social and economic components of subsystems of the system for managing sustainable innovative socially oriented economic development. It makes for a complex evaluation of its efficiency as a dynamic system based on criteria of performance, optimality and sustainability, and also acts as the basis for making managerial decisions as to implementing the measures to improve the level of satisfying the vital interests of socium, society and state.

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