MONETARY TRANSMISSION AND REGIONAL INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN UKRAINE

Анотація

The article analyzes the impact of monetary transmission channels on the investment activity of Ukraine’s regions under conditions of macroeconomic instability and heightened security risks. The fundamental premise is that the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Ukrainian economy is determined not only by formal changes in interest rate indicators but also by the capacity of regional economic systems to perceive and transform monetary impulses into real investment decisions. In this context, the spatial dimension of monetary transmission gains particular importance, allowing for the identification of the asymmetry in how identical monetary instruments affect different regions. The study focuses on analyzing the interest rate, credit, and expectations channels as key components of the transmission mechanism. It is demonstrated that under conditions of increased uncertainty, the interest rate channel loses its attributes as an autonomous driver of investment activity and primarily performs signaling and stabilization functions. The credit channel is characterized by non-linearity and structural selectivity. It is established that the expansion of credit supply does not guarantee growth in capital investments and often transforms into a mechanism for liquidity support rather than capital formation. Against this backdrop, the expectations channel strengthens its influence, shaping business investment behavior through the assessment of long-term risks, the predictability of government policy, and the quality of the institutional environment. Special attention is paid to the regional differentiation of the investment response to monetary impulses. It is revealed that financially and institutionally strong regions demonstrate relative resilience in investment dynamics even under tight monetary conditions, while territories with increased risk levels effectively drop out of the transmission circuit. This creates a fragmented model of monetary transmission, in which monetary policy loses its universality and requires complementarity with fiscal and regionally-oriented tools for economic recovery.

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