Statistical Modeling of Skills Mismatch in the Labor Market

Анотація

The existence of significant disparities within the scope of labor demand and supply in Ukraine leads to simultaneous shortage of skilled workers for some jobs and / or skills, as well as excessive supply of labor force obtaining irrelevant vocational qualifications and skills. This situation reduces the employment efficiency, restrains labor productivity growth, and confirms low labor force quality. In this context, educational and skill imbalance is an essential deterrent of national economy efficiency as it concerns the mismatch between skills and existing jobs requirements, over-educated as well as undereducated employee which is defined by excess or lack of special knowledge level to accomplish a specific work tasks. Based on studies of leading European practices of educational and skills misbalance measuring and considering existing statistical database in Ukraine, the article suggests methodological approaches to estimate vertical and horizontal skills mismatch with the use of statistical modeling methods. Such an approach promotes evaluating the level of labor force education and skills level depending on their main features (age, gender, type of settlement, economic activity), follow and investigate the condition, trends, and patterns of labor force demand and supply balance processes. Statistical models of interlinks between vertical and horizontal mismatches indices are built. Trends of changes within vertical and horizontal mismatches are investigated; their differences and main distinguishing feature of their developments are highlighted. On the ground of the calculations made the indices of vertical and horizontal mismatches by sectors and economic activities at times are estimated, the reasons for their development trends differentiation in direction are defined. The results obtained may serve as an informational basis to justify sectoral priorities concerning security of national educational system flexibility and employment structural changes advancement.

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