The Socio-Economic Determinants for the Healthy Population in EU countries and Ukraine: The Cluster Approach

Анотація

The notion “healthy population” and its underlining indicators are characterized. The applicability of cluster and discriminant analysis for statistical studies of country classification by socio-economic, demographic, etc. development is substantiated. The principal algorithms involved in cluster analysis are described. It is shown that various statistical estimates and healthy-society indices put the U.S., the U.K., the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and some others on the top of rankings. The authors selected six socio-economic and demographic indicators (mortality ratio, children mortality ratio, birth ratio, life expectancy at birth, healthcare spending per capita, and GDP per capita) providing the clearest picture of the demographic situation and socio-economic performance in a country. Based in the results of a cluster analysis of the status and dynamics of the healthy population in EU countries, the authors determined four clusters for 2020 and five for 2023. A separate cluster included two countries (Luxemburg, and Ireland) that had the highest development level in economy and healthcare. Another cluster incorporated the countries with a robust upward trend in healthy society: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and Sweden. The third cluster covered the countries with the medium development level in 2020: Czech Republic, Estonia, Spain, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovenia. Some socio-economic and demographic shifts caused a redistribution: in 2023, a separate second cluster included France, Italy, Cyprus, and Malta. The fourth cluster for 2020, which is the fifth one for 2023, included the countries of Central and South-East Europe with the lowest economic and demographic indicators. The results of discriminant analysis allowed the authors to include Ukraine in the fourth cluster. A low birth ratio (7‰), a high mortality ratio (15 persons per 1,000 population, and seven dead children younger than one year per 1,000 live-born), a low life expectancy at birth (73 years) compared with developed European counties (more than 82 years) give evidence of a prolonged depopulation in Ukraine. The economic performance in Ukraine is low as well: per capita GDP amounted to 3,300 euro in 2020 and 4,400 euro in 2023, whereas in the neighboring Poland it was 14,200 and 20,500 euro, respectively. Allocations for healthcare are also extremely low: 90 euro per capita in 2020 and 120 in 2023. This figure ranges in EU from 1,000 to 7,000 euro per capita. The authors observe that because official population statistics in Ukraine has been unavailable since 2022, demographic indicators should be used for analysis with precaution.

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