Retrospective analysis of the basic demographic indicators formation in Ukraine compared to similar global trends

Анотація

The objective: to perform a retrospective study of the dynamics of the basic demographic indicators formation in Ukraine (population, mortality, birth rate, fertility rate) for the 30-year period 1992–2021 compared with the average indicators in the world and in its individual regions.Materials and methods. Data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and statistical data from the World Bank were analyzed for population, number of deaths, births, mortality, birth rate and fertility rates. The following methods were used: a systematic approach and systematic analysis, graphical analysis, medical and statistical and content analysis. To establish the reliability of the difference between the compared groups, the Student’s t-test was used; differences were considered reliable at p < 0.05.Results. It was found that during the specified period (1992–2021), the number of people on the planet continued to grow (growth rate +44.21%). This process occurred at the highest rates in the countries of Africa, in particular East and South Africa (+115.02%), West and Central (+119.39%), the Middle East and North Africa (+79.63%) and the Arab world (+92.95%). In other parts of the world, the population growth rates corresponded to the average in the world (+44.21%). The population in the European Union (EU) grew at the lowest rate (+5.72%). For Ukraine, as a country in the European region, for the period 1992–2021, opposite trends towards a decrease in the population were characteristic (–20.1%). Analysis of the formation of mortality rates revealed insignificant trends towards its decrease (–4.55%). The mortality rates in the Middle East, North Africa (5.5 per 1,000 people, growth rate –14.06%) and in the Arab world (5.8 per 1,000 people, growth rate –32.04%) remained the lowest in 2021. In Ukraine, there was an increase in both the absolute number of deaths (+16.01%) and the mortality rate (+38.06%), the value of which in 2021 (18.5 per 1,000 people) exceeded the value of the rate in the world (18.5 versus 8.7 per 1,000 people) by 2.10 times (p < 0.001), and the value of the rate in the EU countries by 1.55 times (p < 0.01) (18.5 versus 11.9 per 1,000 people). Regarding birth and fertility rates, during the study period, their decrease was established on a global scale (–31.74% and –25.18%, respectively). At the same time, there are countries in which, despite their decrease in value by the end of 2021, the fertility rate significantly exceeds the world average value of the indicator (2.27 children). These include: countries of Africa (East and Southern Africa (4.35 children), West and Central Africa (4.98 children), the Middle East and North Africa (2.67 children)), South Asia (2.24 children), as well as the Arab world (3.14 children per 1 woman of fertile age), which is a sign of their ability in the future to replenish the population of their countries naturally.Conclusions. The World Bank’s forecasted increase in the mortality rate in Ukraine for the period 2022–2031 is 24.0 per 1,000 people, while maintaining the identified trends of population decline (–20.1% for the period 1992–2021), a decrease in birth rates (–35.96% to 7.3 per 1,000 people in 2021) and fertility (–30.7% to 1.16 children per 1 woman of reproductive age). There is a threat of the impossibility of naturally reproducing the population and ensuring conditions for further growth in depopulation, which requires systematic state measures to overcome the negative trends.

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