Methodological approaches to the diagnostic and assessment of the probability of business bankruptcy

Анотація

Introduction. Methodological approaches to forecasting the financial state of enterprises from the point of view of possible bankruptcy are generalized and systematized. The classification of crisis diagnosis methods was studied and the stages of the crisis were considered. The modern practice of using foreign models for diagnosing the probability of the threat of insolvency of business entities is analyzed, with the identification of their advantages and disadvantages. Recommendations for improving approaches to assessing the probability of bankruptcy of national enterprises using foreign methods have been formulated, aimed at increasing the objectivity of the results of such an assessment. An algorithm for diagnosing and assessing the probability of bankruptcy for Ukrainian enterprises is proposed. The purpose of the paper is to study the methodological approaches of forecasting the bankruptcy of the enterprise. Results. The application in Ukraine of foreign multi-factor methods of assessing potential bankruptcy based on a qualitative approach is complicated by the need to adapt them to the domestic realities of doing business by specifying the critical values of relevant indicators by industry, which requires the processing of a significant layer of accumulated statistical data. Therefore, painstaking scientific research in this direction cannot be dispensed with. In addition, the use of similar methods at the level of a specific enterprise will require the involvement of highly qualified financial analysts, the payment of whose services will have a negative impact on the cost of the bankruptcy proneness diagnosis process. Methodical approaches to assessing the state of bankruptcy of enterprises were studied, which made it possible to classify the methods of diagnosing a crisis state from three positions: quantitative, qualitative, combined. Each of the methods is used depending on the types of crisis phenomena (local, systemic). Such phenomena can be detected on the basis of the viability assessment model. The vast majority of methods are based on the assessment of financial stability and financial balance. Conclusion. It was also determined that foreign models should not be used for Ukrainian enterprises, because they will not give a reliable result. This is due to the instability of the Ukrainian macroeconomic environment. Tereshchenko's model should be used for Ukrainian enterprises.

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