Cluster Model of Construction Companies’ Development in Conditions of Uneven Territorial Recovery

Анотація

Abstract The construction sector plays a system-forming role in post-war recovery, while firm-level development under wartime conditions is characterised by pronounced structural and territorial heterogeneity. The aim of this study is to substantiate and empirically approbate a cluster-based model for identifying typical development trajectories of construction companies under conditions of uneven territorial recovery. The object of the study is medium-sized and large construction companies operating in Ukraine during wartime economic disruption. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development and empirical implementation of a data-efficient cluster-based model for identifying firm-level development typologies under uneven territorial recovery, explicitly accounting for wartime data constraints and structural heterogeneity. The proposed model is based on a minimally sufficient set of financial indicators and proxy measures of adaptive capacity, ensuring analytical robustness under data constraints and high uncertainty. Empirical approbation is conducted using real firm-level data for 40 construction companies engaged in residential and non-residential construction across Ukrainian regions, with temporarily occupied territories excluded from the analysis. The results reveal a stable four-cluster structure representing adaptive growth, resilient stabilisation, vulnerable adaptation, and fragmented survival development models. The findings confirm significant structural heterogeneity within the construction sector and demonstrate that territorial conditions influence the probability of development trajectories rather than determining firm outcomes mechanically. The proposed approach provides a data-efficient analytical framework for assessing construction sector dynamics in post-war recovery contexts.

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