Macroeconomic forecasting system for the post-war economic recovery of Ukraine

Анотація

The paper develops a conceptual model of macroeconomic forecasting designed to support strategic planning and the formation of national economic policy in the context of post-crisis recovery. The relevance of the topic arises from the increasing complexity and unpredictability of economic processes, which require forecasting tools capable of integrating multidimensional information and responding quickly to structural shifts. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate methodological principles for building an adaptive and analytically robust forecasting system that can offer reliable projections under conditions of uncertainty. The research methodology is based on the combination of econometric modelling, scenario analysis, system-structural assessment and data-driven analytical techniques. This approach allows the model to incorporate heterogeneous datasets, reflect the dynamics of sectoral and institutional changes, and capture behavioural responses of economic agents. The integration of traditional macroeconomic indicators with high-frequency and alternative data sources enhances the sensitivity of forecasts and ensures the capacity to detect early signals of economic fluctuations. The obtained results demonstrate that an effective conceptual model of forecasting should be multi-layered, adaptive and institutionally oriented. It must include interconnected analytical blocks that account for macroeconomic, structural, technological and behavioural determinants of development. Such a model makes it possible to simulate alternative recovery trajectories, evaluate the effects of policy decisions and identify risks that may alter the expected path of economic growth. The findings confirm the importance of flexible forecasting tools for supporting government decision-making at both operational and strategic levels. The practical value of the paper lies in providing a scientifically grounded framework that can be directly used by policymakers to improve the quality of economic planning, design evidence-based public interventions, optimise resource allocation and strengthen the resilience of the national economy during recovery and long-term development.

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