Bridging the Gap or Diverging Paths? Impacts of China’s BRI on EU-Asian Trade

Анотація

This study investigates the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on trade dynamics between the European Union (EU) and Asian countries, focusing on 2003–2022. Employing a robust gravity model of trade, the analysis examines how several factors such as economic size, geographical distance, foreign direct investment (FDI), and BRI membership have influenced trade volumes. The findings reveal a complex interplay between these factors, where contrary to typical expectations, the EU’s GDP negatively correlates with trade volume, suggesting intricate economic policies or market dynamics at play. In contrast, a positive correlation between the GDPs of BRI member countries and trade volumes aligns with the gravity model, indicating that economic growth is a crucial driver of trade. Geographical distance and Chinese FDI also play significant roles, with distance impeding and FDI facilitating trade. Additionally, BRI membership is positively correlated with increased trade volume. These results offer new insights into the BRI’s multifaceted impact, contributing to the ongoing discourse on its role in shaping EU-Asian economic relations.

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