Current state and directions of transformation of the world energy market

Анотація

The research is devoted to the current state and directions of transformation of the world energy market. It was determined that at the current stage, the global economy is going through a very uncertain moment, when the cumulative effects of adverse shocks over the past three years, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are manifesting in unpredictable ways. Economic growth to 2030 is projected to be slower than previously predicted, implying lower levels of activity in all sectors. This causes lower growth in energy demand, driving a significant change in global energy supply compared to previous projections. It is substantiated that the uncertainty regarding the price forecast of the world energy markets increases due to the uncertain recovery of the growth of the world's leading economies (USA, China, EU countries), as well as due to the energy transition to an economy with net zero emissions. It was determined that instability in the energy markets activates the transformation of national energy policies. This is evidenced by the increase in annual investments in clean energy (USA and China), the acceleration of the introduction of renewable energy sources and the efficiency improvement (EU and China), a significant increase in financing for technologies, including nuclear, with low levels of hydrogen and ammonia emissions (Japan, Korea). etc. It was concluded that taking into account the challenges faced by the global economy and the world energy system in particular, it is necessary to form a new paradigm of energy security in order to maintain reliability and availability while reducing emissions for the transition to net zero emissions scenario. National economies face the challenges of parallel reduction of fossil fuels and expansion of clean energy systems. Power generation systems need to be more responsive, and network infrastructure needs to be strengthened and digitized. This requires new technological solutions, which, in turn, require significant financial investments. Continued technological innovation and recycling are vital measures to reduce stress on critical mineral markets.

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