SOCIO-ECONOMIC RECOVERY OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MIGRATION CRISIS: RESOURCE POTENTIAL FORESIGHT

Анотація

The article aims to provide a foresight (forecast until 2035) of Ukraine’s socio-economic recovery in terms of the impact of migration losses on the resource potential. The socio-economic recovery potential of the country is structured as a system (financial and industrial capacity, demographic and workforce resources, intellectual and technological potential, and entrepreneurial strength). The foresight of Ukraine’s socio-economic recovery potential based on the scenario approach includes three models of intention development: trend (the level of youth migration abroad remains at the pre-war level), optimistic (the rate of youth out-migration decreases with a simultaneous increase in re-emigration), and pessimistic (the rate of youth out-migration remains high). The practical content of the study lies in the scenario modelling of Ukraine's socio-economic recovery in the projection of migration losses, which will allow for the development of a methodology for analysing the impact of migration on the resource potential of socio-economic stability and development in the face of shocks.

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