Scenario management of insurance companies’ development in Ukraine: a practical case

Анотація

Introduction. Against the backdrop of current geopolitical instability and the armed conflict in Ukraine, the challenge of effective scenario management for the development of insurance companies has acquired considerable scientific and practical relevance. Existing strategic planning concepts demonstrate limited adaptability to a dynamic risk environment, underscoring the necessity of revisiting established management approaches and formulating new methodological principles of scenario modelling. Scenario-based management emerges as a key instrument of strategic adaptation, capable of ensuring the flexibility and resilience of insurance companies under conditions of uncertainty. An empirical study, conducted on the example of a Ukrainian insurance company, made it possible to identify key patterns, managerial mechanisms, and practical solutions that contribute to successful adaptation to extreme operating conditions, particularly through the implementation of innovative scenario planning tools. Aim. To identify the key mechanisms and instruments of scenario management for the development of insurance companies in Ukraine through an in-depth case study and to formulate scientifically grounded recommendations for improving the methodology of scenario planning under wartime conditions. Methodology. A comprehensive set of methods was employed, including dialectical and systemic approaches, the method of scientific abstraction, case study, coefficient analysis, matrix-integral approach, scenario analysis, comparative analysis, conceptual modelling, and structural-logical modelling. Results. Based on a case analysis of JSC IC ARX, a comprehensive assessment of the company’s financial and economic performance over 2020–2024 was conducted. A positive trend in key indicators was revealed: insurance premiums increased from UAH 3.6 billion in 2023 to UAH 4.3 billion in 2024 (+20.5%), while net profit stabilised at UAH 447–453 million. A matrix-integral positioning analysis using IB and FB indicators demonstrated the company’s transition from a ‘fragile equilibrium’ zone to a trajectory of sustainable development. An advanced three-dimensional methodology for scenario management was developed, integrating the traditional financial strategy matrix (IB × FB) with the War Risk Index (WRI) and the Adaptability Coefficient (AC), formalised through an integral Scenario Development Index (ISDI). A system of early warning indicators was proposed, comprising four colour-coded zones (claims ratio, premium growth rate, ROE, and liquidity ratio). Furthermore, a five-stage conceptual model of adaptive scenario planning was presented, encompassing monitoring, matrix positioning, scenario selection, strategic adaptation, and control–correction.

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