ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF UKRAINE’S SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY: AN INDICATOR- BASED APPROACH

Анотація

In times of prolonged crises, most notably the full-scale war in Ukraine, social security has become a paramount priority in public policy, directly affecting both the resilience of the national economy and the welfare of citizens. This urgency underscores the need to rethink methodological frameworks for assessing social security, a concept that extends beyond mere living standards, employment levels, and access to essential services to also include the state’s capacity to respond to hybrid threats and internal social tensions. The primary aim of this study is to theoretically ground and practically refine national- level social security assessments by systematizing relevant indicators and constructing an integrated evaluation model informed by multi-disciplinary perspectives. The research adopts a tripartite analytical approach, indicator-based, institutional, and integrative, leveraging secondary statistical data, including international instruments such as the Social Progress Index (SPI), alongside robust mathematical techniques including normalization, aggregation, and multidimensional statistical analysis. As a result, a multi-tiered system of social security indicators was formulated, encompassing welfare, social protection, education, life safety, and self-preservation metrics. A comparative analysis of SPI data for Ukraine and Poland from 2014 to 2023 highlights consistent structural disparities in social potential development. Ukraine lags behind by 8 - 12 points, with some delayed convergence prior to 2022 followed by setbacks due to war-related disruptions, contrasting sharply with Poland’s stability. The developed model facilitates quantitative measurement of social security, enabling the identification of systemic weaknesses and projection of potential social risks. The originality of the study lies in adapting global indicator frameworks to wartime conditions, tailoring international methodologies to national specificities, and integrating economic, social, and psychological dimensions within a cohesive analytical apparatus. Notably, this is the first Ukrainian scholarly work to utilize SPI comparisons between Ukraine and Poland to evaluate social security resilience. This systematic, indicator-based approach provides policymakers with a rigorous foundation for crafting social strategies during complex crises. It also offers a strategic platform for future-oriented social development planning, aimed at enhancing national resilience. The study contributes substantially to both the academic discourse and practical policymaking by illustrating how nuanced, context-aware frameworks can guide effective state responses to emerging social security challenges.

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