Innovative approaches to human capital management in the context of demographic and migration changes in the agricultural sector

Анотація

It is substantiated that under conditions of full-scale war, intensive labor migration, and demographic aging of the population, traditional methods of personnel management in the agricultural sector are losing their effectiveness, thereby necessitating a transition to qualitatively new, flexible management models. Based on the processing of empirical data from 10 representative agricultural enterprises of Ukraine with a total number of about 82 thousand employees (providing up to 8% of the industry’s gross production), a comparative analysis of personnel parameters was carried out within two three-year periods: pre-war (2019–2021) and war (2022–2024). As a result of the study, the phenomenon of “horizontal compression” of labor potential was identified, along with systemic structural and age imbalances. It is proven that the increase in the average wage by group from 13.4 to 19.4 thousand UAH is mainly compensatory and reactive in nature, since it is not accompanied by a proportional increase in labor productivity but serves as a tool for retaining personnel amid a shortage of personnel. A clear trend of collective aging was observed: the average share of young people under 35 years of age decreased by 6.9 percentage points, while the share of employees over 50 years of age increased by 4.7 percentage points. Due to the lack of direct recording of dismissal motives in corporate statistics, the author proposed and scientifically validated a toolkit for assessing latent migration losses using the integral migration impact index (IMI). This index synthesizes the deltas in the shares of youth and personnel turnover, the level of shortage in critical professions (which averaged 9%), the share of long-term vacancies (7.3%), and the volume of involvement of IDPs and seasonal workers. It is argued that the critical vulnerability of systems encourages market leaders to introduce innovative HR technologies. The level of distribution was analyzed, and the depth of optimization of personnel processes was assessed using the developed Human Capital Management Innovation Index (HCMII), which considers the coverage of personnel with digital HR accounting, LMS learning platforms, KPI motivation, partnerships with higher education institutions, and flexible forms of employment. It was found that the average level of innovation maturity of the agricultural and industrial complex is moderate (HCMII = 0.33), however, leading companies with a systemic approach (HCMII within 0.65–0.78) demonstrate a significantly higher ability to bridge personnel gaps and support internal mobility. Keywords: management, human capital, agricultural sector, demographic changes, migration changes, innovations.

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