The Impact of Refinancing on the Bank’s Credit Portfolio: Theoretical Aspects and Modelling

Анотація

The article for the first time proposes a theoretical-predictive mathematical model of the impact of refinancing on the banks’ credit portfolio in Ukraine from 2006 to 2016. The study is based on the theoretical assumptions about the use of the banks’ free reserve as an indicator to attract refinancing both in the interbank credit market and on the part of the central bank, followed by its impact on the credit portfolio. Based on the results obtained, conclusions have been made on the evaluation of actions of the National Bank of Ukraine, using refinancing as a tool for stabilizing bank liquidity; a number of concrete proposals in order to improve this process has been elaborated. Using the regression-correlative multi-factor and pair analysis, reliable estimates of the impact of refinancing on the credit portfolio of banks have been calculated, as well as the predictive trends until 2018.

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