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Strategy of Economic Development: a Proposal for Ukraine upon Econometrics of Geometry

Yoshio MatsukiORCIDPetro I. BidyukORCID

Анотація

This article shows a methodology of a system analysis for providing the foresight of a strategy for Ukraine’s economic development. A linear equation is set to simulate how the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine can be produced by various industrial sectors such as manufacturers, energy, food, tourism and small business. The effectiveness of the monetary donations from foreign countries is also taken into account for the simulation. The algorithm of the simulation is set in a geometry with a multi-dimensional flat space of the variables, which represent those industrial sectors as well as the GDP. Actual data is used for the simulation, which is obtained between 1991 and 2019. Matrix algebra calculates the coefficients of a linear equation that simulates and determines strong and weak points of Ukraine’s industrial structure. The result of the simulation shows that Ukraine’s GDP has been heavily dependent on the monetary aid from foreign countries. Then a comparison is made with the simulation of the USA. As a result, it is found that Ukraine needs to promote exports. Upon this finding, a further study is made on a possibility for developing food export as an example. At the end, a discussion is shown on the existing problems of the export businesses.

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