Global Turbulence as a Determinant of the Adaptation of the Export-Oriented Development Potential of the National Economy

Анотація

The aim of the article is to develop and substantiate the theoretical foundations of the mechanism for adapting the export-oriented development potential of the national economy under conditions of global turbulence. The current state of exports and imports is analyzed, showing the presence of clearly defined structural phases of Ukraine’s foreign trade development, which reflect both cyclical fluctuations and profound external shocks. It is substantiated that without an active export-industrial policy aimed at restoring production, logistics, and access to external markets, such dynamics are macroeconomically unstable in the medium term. The advisability of forecasting exports is demonstrated, which should take into account not only long-term trends but also the post-shock recovery phase, allowing for the analysis and assessment of future pressure on the foreign exchange market, the need for external financing, and the sustainability of the economic growth. Forecasting of export dynamics was conducted based on the method of extrapolating the recovery trend, which indicated a further deepening of the negative foreign trade balance, increasing pressure on the balance of payments, the foreign exchange market, and the public finance system, highlighting the need to develop an active State export-oriented strategy aimed at restoring high value-added production, diversifying the export commodity structure, and reducing import dependence in reconstruction processes. Priority directions for adapting the national economy’s export-oriented development potential to conditions of global turbulence are proposed. Further research should focus on implementing a comprehensive approach to developing an effective long-term strategy by the State, business, and international partners to support and systematically adapt the export potential of the national economy to the turbulence of the dynamic global environment, taking into account the use of financial instruments and insuring risks.

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