Managing fiscal risks in the budget process

Анотація

Introduction. Solving the problems of existing negative trends of increasing debt obligations in wartime and reducing the stability of the Ukrainian economy is possible by applying the policy of internal audit and internal control measures and is one of the directions for implementing the strategic goals of the National Economic Strategy for Revenues until 2030 in terms of improving the quality and efficiency of budget process management and public debt administration. This will ensure increased stability of the Ukrainian economy, its sustainable development during the period of Russian aggression, through effective preventive measures and effective management of fiscal risks, improve Ukraine's relations with international organizations, donor states in the financial sector, and the investment climate for foreign direct investment. Problem Statement. The growth of Ukraine's debt creates a zone of uncertainty in the functioning of its economic development. The absence of a body provided for by the legislation of Ukraine that manages public debt, the presence of a high level of fiscal risks, and the failure to apply existing instruments to manage them, reduces the ability to resist negative challenges and makes it impossible to predict the directions of development of the Ukrainian economy during the action of a complex of international, including military, negative factors. The purpose is to study the impact of fiscal risks on effective public debt management; to scientifically substantiate the use of internal audit and control tools in budget processes for the purpose of effective planning and use of public finances. Methods. General scientific, empirical, and special methods were used: observation, comparison, analysis, forecasting, description of events, comparison, theoretical generalization, and abstract-logical. Results. The international and national practice of legislative support for fiscal risk management, their impact on budget processes and public debt management, the application of internal audit and control rules and procedures, the state of debt policy and its impact on budget processes in the medium term were analyzed. Based on the results of the analysis of the state of debt policy, the study of the causes and conditions of public debt growth, negative trends in the financial regulation system, the possibility of using the internal audit and control system for the purpose of qualitatively introducing fiscal indicators for public debt management was analyzed. Conclusions. The results of the study have identified the causes and conditions of unsatisfactory fiscal risk management, which requires the introduction of new and effective use of existing public debt administration tools, the application of a risk-oriented approach developed by international financial organizations; the use of a fiscal risk management methodology in the internal audit and control system of state-owned enterprises, institutions and organizations, which takes into account permanent challenges to the stability of the national economy. The active use of internal audit and control tools creates conditions for effective public debt management, using a risk analysis system, including fiscal ones. The basis for effective management of public debt and fiscal risks is their timely determination in the face of the negative impact of foreign policy, economic, and military factors.

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