Features of budget deficit management in the state budget policy system

Анотація

It is determined that the budget deficit is a key indicator of the state of public finances, as it reflects the ratio between state budget revenues and expenditures, the balance of the budget system, and the effectiveness of the state’s tax, debt, and expenditure policies. The article examines approaches to managing the budget deficit within the state budget policy system. It is established that the modern budget deficit management system is gradually transforming from a model of hard fiscal constraints to a model of adaptive budget regulation, within which the assessment of the admissibility of the deficit is carried out taking into account: the structure of budget expenditures; sources of deficit financing; debt sustainability; impact on macrofinancial stability; the state’s ability to respond to crisis shocks; ensuring the state’s social and security stability. An approach to assessing the effectiveness of the state’s budget policy under macrofinancial instability is considered. A structural-logical model for implementing a methodological approach to assessing the effectiveness of the state’s budgetary policy is presented. A methodology for standardizing indicators of budgetary policy effectiveness is presented. An interpretation of the integral index of budgetary policy effectiveness is presented. A methodological approach is proposed to assess the effectiveness of budgetary policy in ensuring the state’s macrofinancial stability. The fundamental difference of this approach is that the integral index is formed not as a mechanical set of financial security indicators, but as a multi-level system for assessing the effectiveness of budgetary regulation under macrofinancial instability. A clustering of models of state revenue and expenditure management under macrofinancial instability is conducted. A passport of revenue and expenditure management models is presented. The cluster structure of revenue and expenditure management models, along with their profiles, is presented. Types of macrofinancial turbulence and their budget characteristics are identified. A correspondence matrix of “type of macrofinancial turbulence – management cluster” is presented. A model for choosing a budget configuration depending on the type of macro-financial situation is presented. Keywords: budget, revenues, expenditures, budget deficit, public debt, budget policy, management, approach, effectiveness, cluster analysis, model, state.

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