Managing Fiscal Risks to the Ukrainian State Budget in a Wartime

Анотація

The article analyzes the risk management of public finances in Ukraine, considers foreign experience during the crisis, and suggests ways for improvement. The tools for mitigating fiscal shocks in times of crisis are considered, and tools that are used in a world practice are identified. The financial and economic crises have become an obvious indicator of what tools different states are ready to use, depending on the level of their economic development and the degree to which risk management is implemented in fiscal processes. Risks of public finance are defined: macroeconomic risks; risks associated with public debt and government guarantees; risks related to the activities of public sector entities; risks associated with the financial sector; risks related to the social sphere; risks associated with the sphere of agriculture and food security of the state; risks associated with insufficient transparency of the budget; risks related to inadequate cost control, which leads to fraud and corruption in the public sector; risks related to the imperfection of approaches to the analysis of the effectiveness and efficiency of the program budget; risks of fraud and tax evasion. The countries are characterized by using the following budgetary instruments: application of fiscal rules, implementation of budget expenditures of a social nature, giving incentives of an innovative and investment kind . The risk-based method in the system of public finances in the face of global challenges has been improved, and measures to improve public finance management in Ukraine have been proposed. Main recommendations were proposed: expansion of government business support programs, optimization of budget expenditures, approximation of the terms of placement of government bonds to the market value of resources in national currency, improvement of fiscal rules, and diversification of import taxation.

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