Predictive Methods in the Study of Contemporary International Relations (as Illustrated by the Richardson Dynamic Model)

Анотація

The issue of studying the possibility of modeling international relations taking into account their dynamic properties is highlighted. Recognizing the mathematical model as a simplified picture of the real world, the limitations of its reproducing effect of the real world are emphasized. The structural and logical scheme of Richardson’s model with its constituent elements is outlined. The application of this model to forecasting foreign policy relations is substantiated. With this in mind, the trends of possible confrontation were analyzed based on the obtained values of the factors: military threat, burden of costs, past grievances. The level of militarization of the economy through the prism of spending on the military industry is revealed. The level of the burden of defense expenditures on the budgets of the subjects of analysis has been established. The work also examines such issues as the essence of the arms race, current trends in defense spending in the world, mathematical modeling of the confrontation between the United States and China, Ukraine and Russia, and the analysis of defense spending by the participants in these conflicts using Richardson’s dynamic model.

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