THE TRANSFORMATION OF EU SECURITY ENVIRONMENT DUE TO UKRAINIAN MIGRATION: A SCENARIO APPROACH WITHIN THE FOREIGN ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT

Анотація

The article is devoted to the current aspects of the transformation of the security environment of the European Union (EU) under the influence of Ukrainian migration in the foreign economic dimension. A research methodology was formed to implement the article's main idea in several stages. The first stage involved a review and analysis of migration processes resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The second stage involved establishing key drivers of migration processes, i.e. identifying those factors that have had the greatest impact on migration processes in Europe since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war. As a result of the analysis, a matrix model of drivers of migration caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war was developed. The third stage required establishing uncertainties, i.e. those factors that are unpredictable, but critically important for the formation of the security environment of the EU and Ukraine, as they have a significant impact on this process. A list of uncertainties and their main causes was formed, which made it possible to form the basis for the scenario method.

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