Estimated losses of innovative capacity of the parties as a result of «hybrid» Russian aggression against Ukraine

Анотація

The object of the research is the process of estimation of losses of the innovation potential of the states that are in «hybrid» military confrontation. But there appears a problem of trustworthiness of results of such estimation. It may be achieved by comparing deviations of the real dynamics of national production results taking into account factors of the physical and human capital and also technological progress.The work conducts the estimation of losses (increment) of the innovative potential of Ukraine as a state-victim and Russia as a state-aggressor in the «hybrid» war, started from the temporary occupation of the Crimean Autonomous republic and continuing till today. Estimation results are based on real (official) statistical data of the World Bank, present in public access for 1995–2017. The estimation object is the dynamics of result of the national economies of the conflict parties taking into account production factors and technological progress.There was realized the improvement of the methodical support of the estimation of innovation potential losses at the microlevel by modeling the production function of Tinbergen-Solow. As a result there was obtained the fixed and current dynamics of the technological progress parameter for the states-antagonists in the «hybrid» conflict for 2013–2017. There were calculated differences of multipliers of Tinbergen-Solow production function by the technological progress parameter – fixed for 2013 and current for 2014–2017.It was grounded that during 4 years of «hybrid» aggression renovation of the Ukrainian national economy is by 7,5 % slower than in Russia. The increment of the Ukrainian innovation potential in 2014–2017 was 2,1 % of the GDP volume for the end of 2013. Losses of the Russian innovative potential for the same period were 8,5 % of the GDP volume for 2013.The results of improving the methodical support of the process of estimating innovation potential losses of the parties of «hybrid» aggression form a base for modeling the dynamics of real GDP and its physical volume that increases a base of future studies essentially.

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