Determining the impact of virtual water scarcity risk on the global food crisis 2022 as a result of hostilities

Анотація

The object of this study is the process that forms conceptual foundations for managing the impact of virtual water deficiency risks on the global food crisis. The main idea of the study focuses on determining the consequences of the global food crisis in the world under the influence of a significant reduction in virtual water exports from Ukraine to agri-food markets. It is determined that most likely, in the context of the replacement of Ukrainian exports of grain and agricultural products as a result of Russian aggression in Ukraine, the countries of the world will resort to new ways of obtaining effective imports of virtual water from other countries. The study proved that rapid structural changes in the economies of the countries of the world and the reorientation of their national economies towards the development of the agricultural sector under modern conditions of global uncertainty would inevitably lead to certain consequences. Namely, either to the fall in the growth rate of national economies, or to the state of the "bifurcation explosion" with the subsequent dispersion of possible states of development. The proposed scientific and methodological approach to assessing the sustainability of the systemic development of the territory over time for water-intensive regions makes it possible to take calculated decisions at the national level regarding the scale and prospects for the development of economic activities in the state. The described theoretical and methodological foundations of the interdependence of water and food security and the developed fundamental provisions of the economies of countries under the conditions of the global food crisis and the risk of a shortage of virtual water will create the following opportunities. Specifically, they enable state authorities to assess the depth of the specified crisis in the world and its consequences for all countries in 2022–2023. Such an understanding creates the conditions for making effective decisions on the volume of import of virtual water in a particular country

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