FORECASTING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE USE OF MEANS OF LABOR ACCORDING TO TREND MODELS

Анотація

The main purpose of this article is to forecast the effectiveness of the use of fixed assets to improve the effectiveness of the technical potential of the business entity. The scientific article considers the process of predicting the effectiveness of the means used for labor by extrapolation. The analysis of the level of capital effectiveness of the business entity is carried out and its forecasting based on polynomial dependence is carried out. During the study period, the effectiveness of the means used for labor has an ambiguous trend. The worst situation is observed in 2013 when the level of return on assets is the lowest, but by 2015 its value is gradually increasing, then decreasing, in 2017 increasing, and then decreasing again. The largest increase in return on assets took place in 2019, but in the reporting, year compared to the previous year, its level decreased again. Therefore, it was necessary to identify factors that would improve the effectiveness of labor. Five factors were selected (the share of the active part of fixed assets, the ratio of fixed assets, technical capital, labor intensity, the share of workers in the workforce), which have a significant impact on the level of effectiveness of fixed assets. Since the constructed models are adequate in terms of the coefficient of determination and Fisher's criterion, the forecasting is carried out in terms of trend models. This allowed to determine the influence of the time factor on the change in return on assets and the factors that significantly affect its change. The results of the forecast show a further stable increase in return on assets, both in terms of its actual and estimated value. Thus, the effectiveness of the means used for labor of the production enterprise is realized through the systematic management of the business entity to improve the effectiveness in the production process of its technical potential. Keywords: means of labor, capital effectiveness, forecasting, extrapolation method, effectiveness of means used for labor, trend model.

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