DYNAMICS OF TRUST INDICATORS IN MONETARY POLICY OF UKRAINE IN 2025

Анотація

Introduction. Trust is one of the key institutional elements underpinning the functioning of the banking system within a national economy. This article presents an attempt to assess the dynamics of public trust in Ukraine’s banking system based on an analysis of indicators characterizing banks’ deposit resource base. Materials and methods. The study employs statistical, dynamic, comparative, and structural analyses to evaluate changes in the key balance-sheet indicators of the banking system, as well as analytical methods and a systems approach to identify interrelationships among monetary flows, inflation, the exchange rate, and trust in monetary policy. The analysis is based on statistical data from the National Bank of Ukraine reflecting the level of trust in the banking system among businesses and households over the period 2022-2025 under wartime conditions, disaggregated into three clusters of banks according to the origin of capital: state-owned institutions, subsidiaries of foreign financial groups, and privately owned banks. Results and discussion. The results indicate that in 2025 Ukraine’s banking system maintained a high level of liquidity and capitalization despite depreciation pressures and inflationary risks. A stable linear growth in household deposits denominated in the national currency was identified, with growth rates broadly consistent with the consumer price index. The dominant stabilizing role of state-owned banks was demonstrated, as these institutions accumulate the predominant share of household deposits and the portfolio of government securities. It was confirmed that a high policy interest rate incentivizes banks to channel resources into sovereign debt instruments, thereby constraining lending to the real sector of the economy. Priority measures aimed at strengthening the banking system are outlined, and calculations of the present value of the sector’s key financial indicators denominated in US dollars are provided. Conclusions. Under wartime conditions, Ukraine’s banking system has maintained the stability of money circulation as well as adequate levels of liquidity and capitalization. The nearly linear correlation between the depreciation of the hryvnia and the consumer price index confirms the continued inflation sensitivity of the economy. The positive dynamics of deposit and credit portfolios can be regarded as an objective indicator of trust in monetary policy and the country’s financial stability.

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