A Composite Technique for Modeling and Projecting Food Consumer Behavior

Анотація

Building on existing findings in the field, this research seeks to develop and test a composite technique for modeling and projecting food consumer behavior in the context of rapidly changing ambiguous environment. At Stage 1, a model is developed within which the behavioral patterns along with environmental and psychological factors are functionally related qualitative variables attributed with “quantitative images” or metrics indices. These indices form a system of regression equations, instrumental for statistical forecasting, to enable the scenario analysis of patterns at Stage 2. That is, the model is applied in scenario development to predict changes in a set of patterns, which constitute the predominant deterministic component of the random process of consumer behavior at the food market. To provide testing for the technique, dynamics of the U.S. food “overconsumption” pattern are assessed.

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